{"id":38360,"date":"2025-04-16T14:17:27","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T18:17:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=38360"},"modified":"2025-04-24T12:38:40","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T16:38:40","slug":"weekend-preview-minecraft-goes-head-to-head-with-sinners","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/weekend-preview-minecraft-goes-head-to-head-with-sinners\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekend Preview: MINECRAFT Goes Head-to-Head With SINNERS"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/4d671b96\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-boxoffice-podium\">The Boxoffice Podium<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecasting-the-top-3-movies-at-the-domestic-box-office-april-18-20-2025\">Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | April 18 \u2013 20, 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-week-16-april-18-20-2025\">Week 16 | April 18 \u2013 20, 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-nbsp-a-minecraft-movie-warner-bros-week-3-weekend-range-35m-45m-showtime-marketshare-22\">1.&nbsp;<em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em><br>Warner Bros. | Week 3<br>Weekend Range: $35M \u2013 $45M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 22%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em> is riding a lot of momentum, and held well in its second weekend. The market still doesn&#8217;t have anything like it, and we think the broad appeal and high awareness of the title should be enough to maintain first place once again. Controversy over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thewrap.com\/jack-black-surprises-minecraft-audience-chicken-jockey\/\">thrown popcorn<\/a> and &#8220;chicken jockey&#8221; behavior continues to keep awareness high. The biggest Easter 3-Day openings tend to be big event tentpole movies like <em>Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice<\/em> ($166M), <em>Furious 7<\/em> ($147.18M), or <em>The Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/em> ($146.36M)&#8230; and\u2014unlike primary competition <em>Sinners<\/em>\u2014the third week of <em>Minecraft <\/em>fits right into the paradigm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It will be a close horse race between <em>Sinners <\/em>and <em>Minecraft<\/em> this weekend. While actuals for <em>Minecraft<\/em>&#8216;s debut were nearly $5M higher than initial estimates, it went the other way by over -$2M in Frame 2 (from the reported $80.6M Sunday to $78.5M actual figure). The -52% drop from the spectacular opening plus that Monday actual dip indicates foot traffic is dissipating, though at $283.8M domestic so far it could reach $400M domestic without breaking a sweat over the next few weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-sinners-warner-bros-new-weekend-range-30m-40m-showtime-marketshare-17\">2. <em>Sinners<\/em><br>Warner Bros. | NEW<br>Weekend Range: $30M \u2013 $40M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 17%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px\">The 1930s period horror film&nbsp;<em>Sinners<\/em>&nbsp;starring Michael B. Jordan is going to live or die by word-of-mouth, so the sparkling\/near-perfect&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rottentomatoes.com\/m\/sinners_2025\" target=\"_blank\">99% critical rating<\/a>&nbsp;on Rotten Tomatoes should prove very valuable.<\/span> A muted marketing campaign for opening weekend, however, suggests a somewhat softer debut. Tracking has kicked up for this title in the days leading up to its Thursday pre-shows, so we can&#8217;t discount the boost that strong word-of-mouth and IMAX screenings can bring. There&#8217;s a chance this opens at $40M+ with walkups, it certainly has that potential, but a debut in the $30M&#8217;s is a more realistic range to set expectations. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Period horror movies are risky. Vampire films of the 2020&#8217;s in general have been negative earners the likes of <em>Morbius<\/em> ($73.8M), <em>The Last Voyage of the Demeter <\/em>($13.6M), <em>Renfield (<\/em>$17.29M), and <em>Abigail <\/em>($25.86M)&#8230; but then there&#8217;s always <em>Nosferatu<\/em> ($95.6M). The big factor there was a combination of classic film cache and a golden boy auteur in Robert Eggers that helped it transcend its R-rating and art house trappings. <em>Sinners<\/em> has got that same director appeal in fan fav Ryan Coogler of the <em>Black Panther <\/em>and <em>Creed<\/em> franchises. The real question? Can Coogler deliver an original hit without the Rocky\/Marvel advantage? The overwhelmingly positive reaction from critics suggests the movie will stick around regardless of its box office performance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-nbsp-the-king-of-kings-angel-studios-week-2-weekend-range-8m-10m-showtime-marketshare-10\">3.&nbsp;<em>The King of Kings<\/em><br>Angel Studios | Week 2<br>Weekend Range: $8M \u2013 $10M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 10%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Angel Studios&#8217; <em>The King of Kings<\/em> enjoyed a fantastic opening weekend that went beyond the typical faith-based numbers, ultimately beating the previous Biblical animated record held by<em> Prince of Egypt<\/em>. We expect it to hold well over the Easter festivities with a drop in the -50% arena. Plus, Fathom&#8217;s theatrical run for <em>The Chosen: Last Supper<\/em> has basically run its course, leaving <em>King of Kings<\/em> the go-to for the Christian demo in North America. Currently sitting at $21M domestic, it could very well beat 1966&#8217;s <em>The Bible<\/em> ($36M) to become the 12th highest-grossing religious text movie of all-time by this frame&#8217;s end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Competition for that family dollar gets split three ways this weekend between <em>King of Kings<\/em>, <em>Minecraft<\/em>, and the platform launch of A24&#8217;s quirky <em>The Legend of Ochi<\/em>, the latter of which is better-reviewed than <em>King of Kings<\/em> at a current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rottentomatoes.com\/m\/the_legend_of_ochi\">78% on RT<\/a>. It&#8217;s possible the cute practical creatures of Ochi might win out with their Mogwai-like cuteness over the animated Jesus tale. There&#8217;s a reason why this movie opened the weekend before Easter: this Sunday could see a dropoff in ticket buys while more religious audiences attend houses of worship. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | April 18 \u2013 20, 2025 Week 16 | April 18 \u2013 20, 2025 1.&nbsp;A Minecraft MovieWarner Bros. | Week 3Weekend Range: $35M \u2013 $45MShowtime Marketshare: 22% Pros A Minecraft Movie is riding a lot of momentum, and held well in its [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":37729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[5705,5711,5727],"class_list":["post-38360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-tracking","tag-a-minecraft-movie","tag-king-of-kings","tag-sinners"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38360"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38360\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}