{"id":35249,"date":"2024-09-27T02:59:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T06:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=35249"},"modified":"2024-10-03T12:48:27","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T16:48:27","slug":"long-range-forecast-venom-the-last-dance-tracking-for-series-record-opening-weekend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-venom-the-last-dance-tracking-for-series-record-opening-weekend\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Range Forecast: VENOM: THE LAST DANCE Tracking for Series Record Opening Weekend"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Subscribe to our FREE<\/em><\/strong> email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long Range Forecast \u2014 October 25, 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Venom: The Last Dance<\/em> | Sony \/ Columbia
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $80M \u2013 $120M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

By far the highest earners among Sony’s live-action superhero series\u2014not exactly a high bar, given the domestic cumes of Morbius<\/em> ($39M domestic opening, $73.8M domestic total) and Madame Web <\/em>($15.3M domestic opening, $43.8 domestic total)\u2014the Venom<\/em> films have been remarkably consistent at the box office up to this point. Both films opened in the first weekend of October, and though they opened approximately $10M apart\u2014$80.2M for 2018’s Venom<\/em> and $90M for 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage<\/em>\u2014their domestic runs both topped out at $213.5M. Let There Be Carnage<\/em> outgrossed the first Venom<\/em> by a mere $38,958 domestically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be an extremely weird coincidence if the antihero trilogy closed out with another <\/em>$213.5M earner\u2014and, in fact, our panel predicts a domestic cume above that, in the $250-$300M range, with an opening in line with\u2014or possibly above, pending changes to tracking\u2014The Last Dance<\/em>‘s predecessors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The success of Venom<\/em> and Venom: Let There Be Carnage <\/em>drives expectations for now, though marketing and reception will still be important in adjusting tracking as we approach The Last Dance<\/em>‘s late-October release date. The announcement that this will be the last entry in the franchise should help its performance, as should a relative lack of superhero movies hitting theaters in 2024: Deadpool & Wolverine<\/em> in July, Joker: Folie \u00e0 Deux <\/em>on October 4, and Sony’s long-delayed Kraven the Hunter <\/em>in December. By contrast, 2018 saw seven comic book movies open theatrically. Even 2021, with its relatively slim Covid-era slate, had six.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, The Last Dance <\/em>could be adversely affected by the aforementioned Joker<\/em> sequel snagging that first-weekend-of-October slot that did so well for Venom<\/em> and Let There Be Carnage. <\/em>Strong holds from Joker: Folie \u00e0 Deux<\/em>, out three weeks before The Last Dance<\/em>, could cut into The Last Dance<\/em>‘s debut weekend… but it’s looking increasingly unlikely that Folie \u00e0 Deux <\/em>will have that kind of juice, as lackluster presales have tracking trending downwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n